Cycle time compression may be the most underestimated force in determining winners and losers in tech. The first clear instance of cycle time compression: Cloud/SAAS vs on-premise enterprise software. Cloud/SAAS development cycles can be far faster than on-premise software; single instance deployed instantly to all customers. Further, customers can try and adopt cloud/SAAS far faster than they can try and adopt on-premise software.
Implication: Cloud/SAAS is probably impossible to compete with for on-premise software across multiple product cycles.
The second clear instance of cycle time compression: Product improvement and customer upgrade cycles for phones vs TVs and cars. Consumers can upgrade their phones every 1-2 years, vs TVs at 5-8 years? Cars at 10-12 years? With phones improving by leaps & bounds.
Implication: At given point in time, your TV can be 4-6 years behind your phone; your car can be 9-10 years behind your phone.
Implication: TVs and cars will become accessories for phones, not the other way around. And it’s already happening: Airplay, Chromecast.
Interesting note: Web cycle times still much faster than mobile app cycle times due to restrictive mobile app store policies.